历史总是惊人的相似。与共享单车一样，无人货架出现不过一两年，就经历了从各方混战到头部之战两个阶段。在持续不断的烧钱点位大战中，无人货架实现了野蛮生长，最终却因为太过“野蛮”导致市场荒凉遍生。满目疮痍的无人货架被众人高唱凉凉之际，巨头却开始强势入场。面对巨头强有力的入局，无人货架市场将发生什么变化？猩便利、果小美等头部玩家又将面临什么样的困境？
History is always strikingly similar. Unmanned shelves, like shared bicycles, have gone through two stages, from melee to head battle, in just a year or two. Unmanned shelves grew savagely during the ongoing money-burning war, but ultimately the market was desolate because of excessive savagery. When the devastated unmanned shelves were cool, the giants began to enter. What will happen to the market of unmanned shelves in the face of powerful entry of giants? What kind of dilemma will face players such as the convenience of the stars and the players play?
1.无人货架之殇
1. unmanned shelves
2017年，新零售火遍大江南北，搭载着新零售的风口，无人概念快速升温，无人便利店、无人货架等行业如雨后春笋般纷纷冒出。其中，无人货架作为抢占办公室等新型消费场景的项目更是受到众人广泛的关注。持续发酵的市场引得资本疯狂加注，各路玩家不断入场。
In 2017, the new retail fire across the Yangtze River, carrying a new retail outlet, no one concept of rapid heating, no one convenience stores, no one shelves and other industries have sprung up like mushrooms. Among them, unmanned shelves as a new type of consumption scenarios such as office grabbing project is widely concerned. The continuous fermentation market leads to capital crazily filling, and players continue to enter.
据新浪科技不完全统计，2017年到2018年年初，无人货架这个火得发热的赛道就已经席卷了30亿真金白银，入局其中的玩家更是达到50多个。
According to incomplete statistics from Sina Technologies, from 2017 to early 2018, unmanned shelves have swept over 3 billion real gold and silver, including more than 50 players.
饿了么推出无人值守货架e点便利，京东到家GO投入市场，顺丰打造无人货架一站式平台丰e足食，另外还有七只考拉、猩便利、果小美、便利蜂等玩家相继进。经过众多玩家一轮一轮的角逐之后，无人货架头部玩家开始凸显，以猩便利和果小美为例。
Hungry to launch unmanned shelves e-point convenience, Jingdong to go home GO into the market, Shunfeng to build unmanned shelves one-stop platform abundant e-food, and seven koalas, chimpanzee convenience, fruit Xiaomei, convenience bees and other players have moved forward. After a round-robin battle, unmanned shelf-head players began to stand out, taking Chimpanzee Convenience and Guo Xiaomei for example.
猩便利：从进入无人货架，猩便利就成为行业中当之无愧的黑马，在短短的时间里，猩便利就已经对外宣布完成超1亿元的天使轮融资，紧接着又开始宣布再获由红杉资本领投的3.8亿元A1轮投资。巨额融资使得猩便利拥有了与其他势力斗争的资本，在资本的助力下，猩便利成功打下自己的一片天。
Chimpanzee Convenience: Since entering the unmanned shelves, Chimpanzee Convenience has become a well-deserved black horse in the industry. In a short period of time, Chimpanzee Convenience has announced the completion of more than 100 million rounds of angel financing, followed by the announcement of a further $380 million A1 round of investment led by Sequoia Capital. The huge amount of financing makes it easy for the orangutans to have the capital to fight with other forces. With the help of capital, the orangutans can successfully lay down their own day.
果小美：毫无疑问，果小美的发展历程和猩便利颇为相似，在30亿融资的市场中，果小美凭着一己之力吸引了超过6亿元的融资，投资方包括IDG资本、蓝驰创投、峰瑞资本等。能够吞下如此巨额的资本，果小美的实力毋庸置疑。
Guo Xiaomei: Undoubtedly, the course of development of Guo Xiaomei is quite similar to that of chimpanzee. In the 3 billion-dollar financing market, Guo Xiaomei attracted more than 600 million yuan of financing by herself. Investors include IDG Capital, Lanchi Venture Capital and Fengrui Capital. The ability to swallow such huge amounts of capital is beyond doubt.
随着头部玩家效应渐显，流血过多的玩家逐渐黯然离场，无人货架市场争夺战从各方混战走向头部斗争。然而，随着头部玩家战争越发激烈，野蛮生长下的无人货架开始问题频现，不断累加的问题使得市场开始崩盘，猩便利、果小美等头部玩家均受到严重冲击。
As the effect of the head player becomes more obvious, bloodshed players gradually fade away from the scene, unmanned shelf market battle from all sides to the head of the scramble. However, as the war between the head players becomes more and more intense, the barbaric growth of unmanned shelves began to occur frequently, cumulative problems make the market began to collapse, chimpanzee convenience, Ko Xiaomei and other head players are severely affected.
2018年上半年，无人货架市场被相继爆出撤站、裁员、资金链断裂等消息。其中，猩便利被媒体爆出正在关闭货架缩减规模。有消息称，猩便利目前已经将三四线城市中的无人货架撤离，随后，又被传出企业的资金链断裂，裁员现象时有出现。果小美也被爆出相似的负面消息，因拖欠欠款被供应商封仓，原本已经和阿里定下的融资合作却惨遭反悔，拖欠员工工资等。而导致两大玩家问题频出的原因，也正是无人货架行业岌岌可危的根本原因。
In the first half of 2018, the market of unmanned shelves was broken out, including layoffs, layoffs, capital chain breakage and so on. Among them, the convenience of the star is being reduced by the media. Sources say that Chimpanzee Convenience has now evacuated unmanned shelves in the third and fourth-tier cities, and then was rumored to break the capital chain of enterprises, layoffs occur from time to time. Goo Xiaomei was also exposed similar negative news, due to arrears by suppliers closed warehouses, had already been set up with Aridine financing cooperation has been miserably regretted, arrears in employees'wages and so on. And the causes of the two major players'problems, is also the root cause of the unmanned shelf industry in jeopardy.
一方面，供应链是阻碍行业朝前发展的关键因素。无人货架虽然玩的是新概念，但本质上仍隶属零售行业，对于零售行业来说，供应链的完善与否在一定程度上决定了行业的发展。就目前看来，大部分的无人货架企业在供应链上存在的问题非常多。
On the one hand, supply chain is a key factor that hinders the development of the industry. Although unmanned shelves are playing a new concept, they still belong to the retail industry in essence. For the retail industry, whether the supply chain is perfect or not determines the development of the industry to a certain extent. At present, most of the unmanned shelf enterprises have many problems in the supply chain.
仓储、物流、配送这一套完整的供应链体系自建的周期太长，且成本太高，大部分的无人货架玩家都不会花精力和时间去打造。绝大多数的无人货架企业并没有自营的供应链体系，在企业规模尚小之际，还可通过O2O方式解决供应链问题，可一旦企业开始扩大规模，企业的供应链问题就会逐渐显露，在点位扩张愈演愈烈时，供应链问题就会成为无法忽视的存在。例如日常补货和损耗将会造成企业运营问题频繁出现，以及货品的品质出现抖动、铺设效率慢等问题。
Warehousing, logistics, distribution of this complete supply chain system self-built cycle is too long, and the cost is too high, most of the unmanned shelf players will not spend energy and time to build. The vast majority of unmanned shelf enterprises have no self-operated supply chain system, and can also solve the supply chain problem by the way of O2 when the scale of the enterprise is still small. But once the enterprise begins to expand its scale, the supply chain problem will gradually emerge, and when the point expansion is becoming more and more intense, the supply chain problem will become a problem that can not be ignored. The existence of. For example, daily replenishment and loss will cause frequent business problems, as well as the quality of goods jitter, slow laying efficiency and other issues.
另一方面，成本问题是市场崩盘的幕后推手。任何商业模式的运转都需要利润进行支撑，但很显然，无人货架现阶段的商业模式实现的利润还不足以支撑起行业运转所需要的成本。与传统便利店按照统一时间补货，费用由供应商承担的方式不同，无人货架由于补货周期不稳定，采购方式通常都是由供货商集中运送到仓库，然后企业再进行逐个分配，中间增加的流通环节费用基本都要企业自掏腰包，这在无形之中增加了企业的采购成本。加上无人货架的走货量规模较小，在成本议价上所占优势不大，采购成本相对而言会相应增加。除此之外，无人货架高进场费用和高货损率也是导致企业运营成本居高不下的主要原因。
On the other hand, cost is the driving force behind the market crash. The operation of any business model requires profit support, but it is clear that the profit achieved by the current business model of unmanned shelves is not enough to support the cost of the operation of the industry. Unlike traditional convenience stores where replenishments are made at the same time and costs are borne by suppliers, unmanned shelves are usually transported centrally from suppliers to warehouses because of the unstable replenishment cycle, and then the enterprises distribute the replenishments one by one. The cost of purchasing is increased. In addition, the unmanned shelf volume is small, and it has little advantage in cost bargaining, so the procurement cost will increase correspondingly. In addition, unmanned shelf high entry costs and high freight loss rate are also the main reasons for the high operating costs of enterprises.
没有褥到羊毛之前，以猩便利为首的无人货架企业之间开始进行点位战，几乎所有的企业都在疯狂、盲目的扩张规模，而这种只重数量不重质量的扩张方式对于原本就需要高额成本支出的行业来说无疑是雪上加霜。
No mattress to wool before, with the convenience of chimpanzees led by unmanned shelf enterprises to start a point war, almost all enterprises are crazy, blind expansion of scale, and this only weight quantity does not weight quality expansion side.
2.无巨头入局救场
2. no giant entry Bureau save field
无人货架有望焕发生机？
Unmanned shelves are promising?
在这样的背景下，无人货架头部企业猩便利、果小美等陷入进退不得的尴尬处境。这种状态持续了半年，终于迎来了新的转机。
In this context, the unmanned shelf head enterprise chimpanzee convenience, Ko Xiaomei, etc. into the embarrassing situation. This situation lasted for half a year, and finally ushered in a new turning point.
2018年6月，无人货架头部企业猩便利获得蚂蚁金服战略投资，其他老股东悉数跟投。这次的战略投资中，猩便利除了获得资金投资外，还将得到蚂蚁金服向其提供的技术支持，例如生物识别技术、信用消费体系等。果小美也被传已完成新一轮融资。此外，早前每日优鲜便利购就宣布要分拆为独立的子公司，并完成2亿美元融资，投资方包括了腾讯等巨头。这类消息的出现对于无人货架来说无疑是久旱逢甘霖。可以预见，巨头入局，无人货架的确有望焕发生机。
In June 2018, the unmanned shelf head enterprise gorillas facilitate access to ant gold clothing strategic investment, all other old shareholders follow. In this strategic investment, chimpanzees will not only get the capital investment, but also get the technical support provided to them by ants'gold clothes, such as biometric identification technology, credit consumption system and so on. Guo Xiaomei was also reported to have completed a new round of financing. In addition, the Daily Fresh Convenience Buy announced earlier that it would split into independent subsidiaries and complete a $200 million financing, investors including Tencent and other giants. The emergence of such news is undoubtedly a long drought for the unmanned shelves. It is foreseeable that the giant's entry into the market and the unmanned shelves are indeed looking promising.
一来，无人货架有着真实的市场需求。在消费升级的大背景下，场景化需求所占比重越来越大，然而，随着资本的挖掘，其他场景基本已经被布满，例如在家有外卖、购物，出门有商超。就现阶段来说，还处于空白地带的场景就是办公室，学校等地方。这些地方的主力人群每天都要在场景中待上8—10小时，甚至是更长时间。在漫长的时间里，这些人群在吃喝方面会产生极大的需求，而无人货架又是比外卖和楼下便利店距离更近的存在。因此，这些人群对无人货架上的产品有着天然的需求。
First, there is a real market demand for unmanned shelves. In the context of consumption upgrade, the proportion of scene demand is increasing. However, with the development of capital, other scenes have been basically full, such as take-out at home, shopping, going out and shopping. At the present stage, the scene in the blank area is offices, schools and so on. The main crowd in these places stays in the scene for 8 to 10 hours a day, or even longer. Over a long period of time, these people will have a great demand for food and drink, and no one's shelves are closer than takeout and downstairs convenience stores. Therefore, these people have natural needs for products on unmanned shelves.
二来，无人货架盲目扩张的点位战已经停止。经历过疯狂扩张带来血一般的教训后，无人货架的市场逐步恢复冷静。猩便利、果小美等头部玩家摒弃了以往只重数量的发展战略，开始朝精细化方向布局。猩便利从无人货架转向智能货柜，同时开启了“无人货架+便利店”新模式的发展。果小美进行战略转型，主攻云端电商以及现有货架精细化运营。盲目跑马圈地所带来的苦果无人货架已经尝过，可以预见，在下个阶段，无人货架行业基本不会再出现盲目的烧钱点位大战，而是开始走向良性竞争的阶段。
Secondly, the point wars of blind expansion of unmanned shelves have stopped. After the bloody lessons of crazy expansion, the market of unmanned shelves gradually recovered. Chimpanzee convenience, Ko Xiaomei and other head players abandoned the previous development strategy of only focusing on quantity, began to refine the direction of layout. Chimpanzees conveniently switch from unmanned shelves to intelligent containers, while opening up the "unmanned shelves + convenience stores" development of a new model. Guo Xiaomei carried out strategic transformation, focusing on cloud business and sophisticated shelf operation. Blind horse race enclosure brought about by the bitter fruit of unmanned shelves have been tasted, it can be predicted that in the next stage, the unmanned shelf industry will basically no longer appear blind money-burning point war, but began to move towards a stage of benign competition.
三来，巨头带来的资本支撑和技术升级。无人货架之所以死伤遍地，很大一部分原因都是源于企业资金断裂和技术难以实现增效降本。而巨头的进入对于无人货架市场上还存活的头部玩家来说，无疑是值得振奋的事情。巨头入局往往会携带资本进场，资金和技术恰好是无人货架所的弱点所在。随着头部玩家的资金危机被解除，供应链等也在巨头的帮助下逐渐完善，无人货架或将迎来第二春。
Third, the capital support and technological upgrading brought by the giant. The reason why unmanned shelves are so deadly and injured is largely due to the financial fragmentation of enterprises and the difficulty of technology to achieve efficiency and cost reduction. And the giant's entry into the unmanned shelf Market for surviving head players, is undoubtedly something to be excited about. Giant entry often brings capital into the field, and capital and technology are just the weaknesses of unmanned shelves. As the head of the player's financial crisis was lifted, the supply chain and so on are gradually improved with the help of the giant, no shelves or will usher in the second spring.
3.头部玩家纷纷转型
3. head players are in transition.
然转型背后新的隐忧渐显
Behind the transformation, new worries are emerging.
在巨头的支持下，无人货架迎来新的增长点，然而，新机遇往往会伴随着新挑战。在无人货架第二春来临之际，猩便利、果小美等头部玩家进入寡头之战。随着有效网点的减少，头部玩家之间的竞争会越发激烈。尽管盲目的跑马圈地已经过去，但对于无人货架市场而言，良性竞争仍是不可避免的重要趋势。在良性竞争中，头部玩家之间的厮杀会更加残忍，遇到的困难也将再次升级。
With the support of giants, unmanned shelves usher in new growth points, but new opportunities are often accompanied by new challenges. In the second spring of the unmanned shelves, the head players of the star convenience and fruit Xiaomei entered the oligopoly war. With the reduction of effective outlets, competition among the head players will become more intense. Although the blind horse race enclosure has passed, but for the unmanned shelf market, benign competition is still an inevitable important trend. In the benign competition, the fighting between the head players will be more brutal, the difficulties encountered will be escalated again.
精细化运营难度不小。无人货架下半场，存活的玩家都知道要往精细化方向发展，然而，道理谁都懂，但实施起来仍有一定的难度。什么是精细化运营？投入产出效率最大化的运营方式，即用最小的成本获取最大价值的流量和收益。要想实现精细化运营，玩家需要考虑到方方面面。比如，点位密度的铺设、货品的种类、补货的周期，已经如何进行陈列等。这都是精细化运营中亟需解决的问题。细节决定成败，无人货架能否靠精细化运营扳回一城，还要看玩家精细化运营是否能给消费者带来更好的消费体验。
Meticulous operation is not difficult. In the second half of the unmanned rack, the surviving players knew they were going to refine, but the truth was clear to everyone, but it was still difficult to implement. What is fine operation? The operation mode of maximizing input-output efficiency is to obtain the maximum value of flow and income with the minimum cost. To achieve fine operation, players need to consider every aspect. For example, how to lay out the location density, the type of goods, the cycle of replenishment, and how to display it. All these are urgent problems to be solved in meticulous operation. Details determine success or failure, unmanned shelves can rely on refined operation to pull back a city, but also to see whether the player refined operation can bring better consumer experience.
盈利模式换汤不换药，玩家资金压力越来越大。智能货柜成本更高昂，据悉，一个智能货柜成本在6000元—1.5万元，而且还要加上技术更迭等额外支出。在商品售卖价格不变的情况下，运营所需要的成本提高，企业能实现的利润将一减再减。而无人货架原本就存在难以实现盈利等问题，成本的再度拔高对于无人货架企业来说资金压力会更大。
The profit mode is changing, and the pressure of players is increasing. Smart containers are more expensive. It is reported that the cost of a smart container is between 6,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan, and additional expenditure such as technology change will be added. Under the condition that the selling price of commodities is unchanged, the cost of operation will be increased, and the profit that the enterprise can realize will be reduced again and again. But the unmanned shelves have been difficult to achieve profitability and other issues, the cost of re-elevation for the unmanned shelf enterprises will be greater financial pressure.
受惠于人之时还要提防予惠之人。巨头入局更多的是基于生态布局上的考量，并不意味着无人货架这个业态一定会有未来。现阶段，巨头已经进入流量增长瓶颈，所以对于流量的饥渴使得他们连碎片流量也不愿意放过。尽管无人货架模式还不能实现完整的引流，但对于巨头来说仍有获取流量的空间，所以才会被巨头纳入旗下。然而，一旦流量进入最后枯竭，那无人货架这个流量工兵终将落得一地鸡毛。
When you are benefiting people, you should beware of those who give you benefits. The entrance of the giant is more based on ecological layout considerations, does not mean that the unmanned shelves industry will have a future. At this stage, the giant has entered the flow growth bottleneck, so the flow of hunger makes them even fragments flow is unwilling to let go. Although the unmanned shelf mode can not achieve complete drainage, but for the giant there is still room to obtain flow, so it will be included in the giant. However, once the flow enters the final exhaustion, the unmanned shelf of the flow engineer will eventually fall to the ground chicken feathers.
总的来说，无人货架虽然状况百出，但市场潜力不可否认，只要选对了模式，无人货架还有东山再起的机会。现如今，巨头齐聚无人货架市场，无人货架头部玩家能否借这股东风再次起势，仍有待观望。毫无疑问，这次新机遇对于无人货架头部玩家来说可谓是背水一战，再无退路。头部玩家的寡头之战即意味着无人货架的最后一场战争，天堂和地狱一线之隔，无人货架的终点会走向哪里，决定权终究掌握在头部玩家手里。
Generally speaking, although the situation of unmanned shelves, but the market potential is undeniable, as long as the right mode, unmanned shelves have the opportunity to rise again. Nowadays, the giants gather in the unmanned shelf market, unmanned shelf head players can take advantage of this shareholder wind again, it remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, this new opportunity for unmanned shelf head players is a backwater battle, there is no way back. The Oligopoly Battle of the Head Player means the last battle of the Unmanned Shelf, the line between heaven and hell, where the end of the Unmanned Shelf will go, the decision is ultimately in the hands of the Head Player.
转自物流时代周刊
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